TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NR. 21

Super Typhoon #LeonPH (KONG-REY)

Issued at 5:00 AM, 31 October 2024

Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 8:00 AM today.

VIOLENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVER EXTREME NORTHERN LUZON AS SUPER TYPHOON “LEON” PASSES CLOSE TO BATANES.

Location of Center (4:00 AM):

The center of the eye of Super Typhoon LEON was estimated based on all available data at 100 km East Northeast of Itbayat, Batanes (21.3°N, 122.6°E)

Intensity:

Maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 240 km/h, and central pressure of 920 hPa

Present Movement:

Northwestward at 20 km/h

Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:

Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the center

TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT

TCWS No. 5

Luzon:

The northern and eastern portions of Batanes (Itbayat, Basco)

Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds

Warning lead time: 12 hours

Range of wind speeds: 185 km/h (Beaufort 12)

Potential impacts of winds: Extreme threat to life and property

TCWS No. 4

Luzon:

The rest of Batanes

Wind threat: Typhoon-force winds

Warning lead time: 12 hours

Range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12)

Potential impacts of winds: Significant to severe threat to life and property

TCWS No. 3

Luzon:

The northern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Calayan Is.)

Wind threat: Storm-force winds

Warning lead time: 18 hours

Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)

Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property

TCWS No. 2

Luzon:

The rest of Babuyan Islands, mainland Cagayan, the northern portion of Isabela (San Pablo, Maconacon, Divilacan, Palanan), Apayao, and Ilocos Norte

Wind threat: Gale-force winds

Warning lead time: 24 hours

Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)

Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property

TCWS No. 1

Luzon:

The rest of Isabela, Quirino, the northern and central portions of Nueva Vizcaya (Bayombong, Dupax del Norte, Ambaguio, Bagabag, Villaverde, Kayapa, Santa Fe, Kasibu, Aritao, Bambang, Diadi, Dupax del Sur, Quezon, Solano), Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and the northern and central portions of Aurora (Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao, Dilasag)

Wind threat: Strong winds

Warning lead time: 36 hours

Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)

Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property

OTHER HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS

Heavy Rainfall Outlook

Refer to Weather Advisory No. 15 issued at 5:00 AM today for the Heavy Rainfall Outlook associated with LEON.

Severe Winds

The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.

• Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5.

• Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.

• Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No 3.

• Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 2.

• Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.

Furthermore, the wind flow coming towards the circulation of LEON will also bring gusty conditions (strong to gale-force) over the following localities (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds) outside Wind Signal areas:

• Today (31 October): Most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Northern Samar and most of Western Visayas.

• Tomorrow (1 November): Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela

Coastal Inundation

Within the next 48 hours, there is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m above normal tide levels over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes and Babuyan Islands. Refer to Storm Surge Warning No. 8 issued at 2:00 AM today for the details.

HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS

A Gale Warning is hoisted over the seaboard of Northern Luzon and the eastern seaboards of Central Luzon. Refer to Gale Warning No. 6 issued at 5:00 AM today for the details.

24-Hour Sea Condition Forecast

Up to very rough, high, or very high seas:

• Up to 14.0 m: The seaboard of Batanes.

• Up to 12.0 m: The seaboard of Babuyan Islands.

• Up to 10.0 m: The seaboard of northeastern mainland Cagayan.

• Up to 6.0 m: The northern seaboard of Ilocos Norte; the seaboard of Isabela; the remaining seaboard of Cagayan.

• Up to 5.0 m: The seaboard of northern Aurora.

• Up to 4.5 m: The remaining seaboard of Ilocos Norte.

• Sea travel is risky all types or tonnage of vessels. All mariners must remain in port or, if underway, seek shelter or safe harbor as soon as possible until winds and waves subside.

Up to rough seas:

• Up to 4.0 m: The northern and eastern seaboards of Polillo Islands and Catanduanes; the seaboards of Ilocos Sur and Camarines Norte; the northern seaboard of Camarines Sur.

• Up to 3.5 m: The remaining seaboards of Ilocos Region and Aurora; the northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar; the eastern seaboards of Albay, Sorsogon, and Eastern Samar.

• Up to 3.0 m: The eastern seaboards of Quezon (including the rest of Polillo Islands) and Dinagat Islands; the western seaboard of Zambales.

• Mariners of small seacrafts, including all types of motorbancas, are advised not to venture out to sea under these conditions, especially if inexperienced or operating ill-equipped vessels.

Up to moderate seas:

• Up to 2.5 m: The western seaboards of Bataan, Batangas, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, northern mainland Palawan, and Calamian Islands; the eastern seaboards of Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, and Davao Occidental.

• Up to 2.0 m: The remaining seaboards of Luzon and the seaboards of Aklan and Capiz.

• Mariners of motorbancas and similarly-sized vessels are advised to take precautionary measures while venturing out to sea and, if possible, avoid navigation under these conditions.

TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK

• LEON is forecast to move northwestward over the seas of Extreme Northern Luzon until it makes landfall along the eastern coast of Taiwan by this afternoon. After crossing the landmass of Taiwan, LEON will then turn northward to north northeastward over the Taiwan Strait towards the East China Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility tonight or tomorrow early morning (1 November). A second landfall over mainland China is not ruled out during this period.

• LEON will be closest to Batanes within the next 3 hours, but the landfall scenario in Batanes is now becoming less likely.

• This super typhoon has reached its peak intensity while passing close to Batanes. LEON may weaken into a typhoon over the next 12 hours prior to landfall over Taiwan. Its interaction with the mountainous region of Taiwan will result in a continuous weakening trend for the rest of the forecast period.

Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 8:00 AM today.

DOST-PAGASA

TC Bulletin: http://tinyurl.com/tcleon

Weather Advisory Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-adv

Gale Warning Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-gale

Storm Surge Link: https://tinyurl.com/wx-surge

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