TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 20

TROPICAL CYCLONE BULLETIN NO. 20
Severe Tropical Storm #PaengPH (NALGAE)
Issued at 8:00 PM, 29 October 2022
Valid for broadcast until the next bulletin at 11:00 PM today
“PAENG” MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH WHILE TRAVERSING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CAVITE
• Location of Center (7:00 PM):
The center of Severe Tropical Storm “PAENG” was estimated based on all available data including those from Tagaytay Doppler Weather Radar in the vicinity of General Mariano Alvarez, Cavite (14.3°N, 121.0°E)
• Intensity:
Maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of
985 hPa
• Present Movement:
Northwestward at 20 km/h
• Extent of Tropical Cyclone Winds:
Strong to storm-force winds extend outwards up to 560 km from the center
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS) IN EFFECT
TCWS No. 3
Wind threat: Storm-force winds
Warning lead time: 18 hours
Range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11)
Potential impacts of winds: Moderate to significant threat to life and property
Luzon:
The central and southern portions of Zambales (San Marcelino, Subic, Olongapo City, Castillejos, San Antonio, San Narciso, San Felipe, Cabangan, Botolan), Bataan, the southern portion of Bulacan (Hagonoy, Paombong, City of Malolos, Bulacan, Obando, City of Meycauayan), the western portion of Pampanga (Masantol, Macabebe, Sasmuan, Lubao, Floridablanca, Porac), Metro Manila, the southwestern portion of Quezon (City of Tayabas, Lucena City, Lucban, Sariaya, Candelaria, Dolores, Tiaong, San Antonio), Laguna, Batangas, Cavite, Rizal, the northwestern portion of Occidental Mindoro (Paluan, Abra de Ilog) including Lubang Islands, the northwestern portion of Oriental Mindoro (San Teodoro, Puerto Galera, Baco, City of Calapan)
TCWS No. 2
Wind threat: Gale-force winds
Warning lead time: 24 hours
Range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9)
Potential impacts of winds: Minor to moderate threat to life and property
Luzon:
Pangasinan, the southern portion of Aurora (San Luis, Baler, Dingalan, Maria Aurora), Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, the rest of Bulacan, the rest of Pampanga, the rest of Zambales, the central portion of Oriental Mindoro (Socorro, Gloria, Bansud, Victoria, Bongabong, Pinamalayan, Pola, Naujan), the central portion of Mindoro (Sablayan, Mamburao, Santa Cruz), Marinduque, the northern portion of Romblon (Concepcion, Corcuera, Banton), the western and central portions of Camarines Norte (Santa Elena, Labo, Capalonga, Jose Panganiban, Paracale, San Vicente, San Lorenzo Ruiz, Daet, Vinzons, Talisay), the western portion of Camarines Sur (Del Gallego, Ragay), and the rest of Quezon including Pollilo Islands
TCWS No. 1
Wind threat: Strong winds
Warning lead time: 36 hours
Range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7)
Potential impacts of winds: Minimal to minor threat to life and property
Luzon:
La Union, Kalinga, Abra, Benguet, Ifugao, Ilocos Sur, Mountain Province, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the rest of Aurora, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate including Ticao and Burias Islands, the rest of Romblon, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of Occidental Mindoro, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, and the northern portion of Palawan (El Nido, Taytay, Dumaran, Araceli, Roxas, San Vicente) including Calamian and Cuyo Islands
Visayas:
The western portion of Northern Samar (Lope de Vega, Rosario, Biri, San Isidro, Capul, San Vicente, Victoria, Lavezares, San Antonio, Mondragon, San Jose, Pambujan, Catarman, San Roque, Allen, Bobon, Silvino Lobos), the northwestern portion of Samar (Calbayog City, Santa Margarita, Gandara, Pagsanghan, Tarangnan, Santo Nino, Almagro, Tagapul-An), the northwestern portion of Leyte (Calubian, San Isidro), the northern portion of Biliran (Maripipi, Kawayan, Almeria, Naval, Culaba), the extreme northern portion of Cebu (Medellin, Daanbantayan) including Bantayan Islands, the northern portion of Negros Occidental (Sagay City, Cadiz City, City of Escalante, Manapla, Enrique B. Magalona, City of Victorias, Silay City, City of Talisay, Murcia, Bacolod City, Bago City, Pulupandan, San Carlos City, Salvador Benedicto, Calatrava, Toboso, Valladolid, La Carlota City), Guimaras, Capiz, Iloilo, Aklan, and Antique
Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals in other areas are hereby lifted
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND AREAS
Heavy Rainfall
• This evening: Heavy to intense with at times torrential rains likely over Metro Manila, Bataan, Zambales, CALABARZON, Marinduque, Mindoro Provinces, and the northern portion of Palawan including Calamian and Cuyo Islands. Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Camarines Provinces, Isabela, Aurora, the rest of MIMAROPA, Ilocos Region, and Cordillera Administrative Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over the rest of Luzon and Visayas.
• Tomorrow: Moderate to heavy with at times intense rains likely over Zambales, Bataan, and Ilocos Region. Light to moderate with at times heavy rains possible over Metro Manila, Cordillera Administrative Region, MIMAROPA, CALABARZON, and the rest of Central Luzon.
• Under these conditions, widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides are expected, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazard as identified in hazard maps and in localities with significant antecedent rainfall.
Severe Winds
• Winds of at most storm-force strength may occur within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted, while winds reaching gale-force strength are possible within any of the areas where Wind Signal No. 2 is in effect. Areas under Wind Signal No.1 may experience strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) throughout the passage of the tropical cyclone.
• The surge of the Northeast Monsoon enhanced by PAENG will also bring strong winds with gusts reaching gale-force strength over Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, the northern and eastern portions of mainland Cagayan, and the northern portion of Apayao.
Coastal Inundation
There is minimal to moderate risk of storm surge of up to 2.0 m in height which may cause inundation or flooding in the low-lying and exposed coastal areas of eastern portion of Quezon, Cavite, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, and Bataan. For more information refer to Storm Surge Warning #7 issued at 8:00 PM today.
HAZARDS AFFECTING COASTAL WATERS
Under the influence of the surge of the Northeast Monsoon and Severe Tropical Storm PAENG, a marine gale warning remains in effect over the seaboards of Luzon and Visayas and the eastern seaboard of Mindanao. For more information, refer to Gale Warning #13 issued at 5:00 PM today.
TRACK AND INTENSITY OUTLOOK
• Severe Tropical Storm PAENG is forecast to track west northwestward through tomorrow morning. On the forecast track, the center of PAENG will traverse the Cavite area, then will cross the southern portion of Bataan.
• PAENG may maintain its strength while traversing the Luzon landmass and further intensification is likely once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
Considering these developments, the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned are advised to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. For heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your local PAGASA Regional Services Division.
The next tropical cyclone bulletin will be issued at 11:00 PM today.
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